ABSTRACT
The study examined the effect of agricultural policy variables on Nigeria’s agricultural output for the period 1981 to 2011. Data used were the annual aggregate output of agriculture at 1990 constant basic prices, Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) recurrent and capital expenditure on agriculture, cultivated land area, value of non-oil export, value oil export, domestic lending rate and foreign exchange rate. The data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN, 2012). Four policy regimes were identified and data were analyzed by the use of descriptive statistics and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Part findings were that: the differential intercept coefficients were significant in all three policy regimes, relative to the benchmark period, indicating significant increases in agricultural output over the year; hectarage cultivated and export of crude oil had significant positive effect on agricultural output; FGN capital expenditure on agriculture, export of non-oil and effective exchange rate have no significant effect on agricultural output. We concluded that although agricultural output is on the upward trend, not all agricultural policy variables are supportive of the trend. It is therefore recommended that proper review/identification of agricultural policy variables and that effective management of the same be carried out to facilitate the realization of the desired performance level. |
